How does the economy recover after the epidemic?Jin Li: guarantee domestic demand, supplement external demand, and pay for foreign reserves
How does the economy recover after the epidemic?Jin Li, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and vice president of Guanghua School of Management of Peking University, put forward a suggestion: to guarantee domestic demand, the guaranteed consumption of low-income people should be given in full amount;In the previous order, the government promised to pay by order; use foreign exchange reserves to pay.First, how to help low-income consumers?Jin Li suggested that the guaranteed consumption of low-income people should be given in sufficient amounts at one time.”In order to resume production, all tolls on public transportation or toll roads can be replaced.The rent of hydropower houses within a certain upper limit is reimbursed by the state.Those who ca n’t afford to eat at home can volunteer to provide free lunch.It can mobilize the wisdom of all parties to prevent someone from taking advantage of the loopholes.Jin Li said that with the recovery of consumption, enterprises ‘domestic demand orders were immediately restored, so that the basic cells of the economy-small, medium and micro enterprises-could be restored immediately.First, how to rescue small, medium and micro enterprises?In Jin Li’s view, the government cannot rely on tax relief or loans provided by the government for too long, because the enterprise needs orders.To subsidize the enterprise’s income is better to let the enterprise make money by itself.Maintaining the orders of small, medium and micro enterprises will allow the enterprises to stand up instead of relying on government subsidies.”Affected by the epidemic and global supply chain restructuring, orders from some exporting companies and their upstream companies have declined.The government can make up for the impact.Specifically, as long as the exporting enterprise provides a verifiable pre-epidemic order, and the government promises to pay the goods by single payment, the enterprise guarantees that the quality will not be degraded.”Jin Li suggested.Jin Li believes that the order materials obtained by the government through the rescue of small and medium-sized enterprises can be partially consumed in the form of relief materials, as a reserve resource for future public health infrastructure, and a part of it is used to rescue countries along the Belt and Road.”The country always exceeds the resources and capabilities of the enterprise to deal with the short-term excess capacity caused by the epidemic. This can ensure that the subsequent orders of the enterprise will not be reduced, and the enterprise will not fall, and then adjust it according to the situation.In this way, full-scale resumption of production can be promoted as soon as possible.When the enterprise resumes normal operation, the wages and property income of employees, trade unions and investors will continue to flow, which will indirectly achieve the purpose of boosting consumption.”Third, how to make good use of foreign exchange reserves to provide assistance?”Now that the government takes over some orders for public expenditure or international assistance, who will pay?Jin Li’s suggestion is that foreign reserves pay the bill.”Foreign exchanges obtained from upstream net exports (that is, exports exceeding imports) are turned over to the People’s Bank through exporting enterprises, and the final balance is the national foreign exchange reserve.It is equivalent to foreigners buying these net exports with white sticks, and eventually these white sticks are converted into foreign exchange reserve assets such as US Treasury bonds.It is the right time to use foreign exchange reserves for domestic post-epidemic economic reconstruction.This may slow down the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves, and even if exports exceed imports in the short term, some existing foreign reserves will be used.But this will also reduce the future geopolitical risks of foreign exchange reserves, while greatly speeding up the repair of the domestic economy.”Reporter Hou Runfang editor Sun Yong proofread Zhang Yanjun